In a new preface, Rebonato explains how the ideas presented in this book fit into the context of the global financial crisis that followed its original publication.
Author: Riccardo Rebonato
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Today's top financial professionals have come to rely on ever-more sophisticated mathematics in their attempts to come to grips with financial risk. But this excessive reliance on quantitative precision is misleading--and puts everyone at risk. In Plight of the Fortune Tellers, Riccardo Rebonato forcefully argues that we must restore genuine decision making to our financial planning. Presenting a financial model that uses probability, experimental psychology, and decision theory, Rebonato challenges us to rethink the standard wisdom about risk management. He offers a radical yet surprisingly commonsense solution: managing risk comes down to real people making decisions under uncertainty. Plight of the Fortune Tellers is a must-read for anyone concerned about how today's financial markets are run. In a new preface, Rebonato explains how the ideas presented in this book fit into the context of the global financial crisis that followed its original publication. He argues that risk managers are still stuck in a probabilistic rut, and need to engage with the structural causes of real events.
210 Rebonato, Plight of the Fortune Tellers (n 208) 18ff, 28ff,43ff, 127ff and 144ff. 211 Crouhy, 'Risk Management Failures ' (n 142), ...
Author: Iris H-Y Chiu
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing
This book examines a key aspect of the post-financial crisis reform package in the EU and UK-the ratcheting up of internal control in banks and financial institutions. The legal framework for internal controls is an important part of prudential regulation, and internal control also constitutes a form of internal gate-keeping for financial firms so that compliance with laws and regulations can be secured. This book argues that the legal framework for internal control, which is a form of meta-regulation, is susceptible to weaknesses, and such weaknesses are critically examined by adopting an interdisciplinary approach. The book discusses whether post-crisis reforms adequately address the weaknesses in regulating internal control and proposes an alternative strategy to enhance the 'governance' effectiveness of internal control.
Rebonato, Plight of the Fortune Tellers, pp. 108-109. g Global Financial Data, http:Zlwww.globalfinancialdata.comlarticlesldow jones.html.
Author: Arnold Kling
Publisher: Encounter Books
The discipline of economics is not what it used to be. Over the last few decades, economists have begun a revolutionary reorientation in how we look at the world, and this has major implications for politics, policy, and our everyday lives. For years, conventional economists told us an incomplete story that leaned on the comfortable precision of mathematical abstraction and ignored the complexity of the real world with all of its uncertainties, unknowns, and ongoing evolution. What economists left out of the story were the positive forces of creativity, innovation, and advancing technology that propel economies forward. Economists did not describe the dynamic process that leads to new pharmaceuticals, cell phones, Web-based information services—forces that fundamentally alter how we live our daily lives. Economists also left out the negative forces that can hold economies back: bad governance, counterproductive social practices, and patterns of taking wealth instead of creating it. They took for granted secure property rights, honest public servants, and the willingness of individuals to experiment and adapt to novelty. From Poverty to Prosperity is not Tipping Point or Freakonomics. Those books offer a smorgasbord of fascinating findings in economics and sociology, but the findings are only loosely related. From Poverty to Prosperity on the other hand, tells a big picture story about the huge differences in the standard of living across time and across borders. It is a story that draws on research from the world’s most important economists and eschews the conventional wisdom for a new, more inclusive, vision of the world and how it works.
Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Risk Differently. Princeton University Press. Reinganum, M. R. 1981. Misspecification of capital asset ...
Author: Gregory Connor
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Portfolio risk forecasting has been and continues to be an active research field for both academics and practitioners. Almost all institutional investment management firms use quantitative models for their portfolio forecasting, and researchers have explored models' econometric foundations, relative performance, and implications for capital market behavior and asset pricing equilibrium. Portfolio Risk Analysis provides an insightful and thorough overview of financial risk modeling, with an emphasis on practical applications, empirical reality, and historical perspective. Beginning with mean-variance analysis and the capital asset pricing model, the authors give a comprehensive and detailed account of factor models, which are the key to successful risk analysis in every economic climate. Topics range from the relative merits of fundamental, statistical, and macroeconomic models, to GARCH and other time series models, to the properties of the VIX volatility index. The book covers both mainstream and alternative asset classes, and includes in-depth treatments of model integration and evaluation. Credit and liquidity risk and the uncertainty of extreme events are examined in an intuitive and rigorous way. An extensive literature review accompanies each topic. The authors complement basic modeling techniques with references to applications, empirical studies, and advanced mathematical texts. This book is essential for financial practitioners, researchers, scholars, and students who want to understand the nature of financial markets or work toward improving them.
Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently. Woodstock, U.K.: Princeton University Press. Rebonato, R. 2010.
Author: Max C. Y. Wong
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Introduces a powerful new approach to financial risk modelingwith proven strategies for its real-world applications The 2008 credit crisis did much to debunk the much touted powersof Value at Risk (VaR) as a risk metric. Unlike most authors on VaRwho focus on what it can do, in this book the author looks at whatit cannot. In clear, accessible prose, finance practitioners, MaxWong, describes the VaR measure and what it was meant to do, thenexplores its various failures in the real world of crisis riskmanagement. More importantly, he lays out a revolutionary newmethod of measuring risks, Bubble Value at Risk, that iscountercyclical and offers a well-tested buffer against marketcrashes. Describes Bubble VaR, a more macro-prudential risk measureproven to avoid the limitations of VaR and by providing a moreaccurate risk exposure estimation over market cycles Makes a strong case that analysts and risk managers need tounlearn our existing "science" of risk measurement and discovermore robust approaches to calculating risk capital Illustrates every key concept or formula with an abundance ofpractical, numerical examples, most of them provided in interactiveExcel spreadsheets Features numerous real-world applications, throughout, based onthe author’s firsthand experience as a veteran financial riskanalyst
Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Redding, P. (1996).
Author: Chris Jefferis
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
This book analyses the logic of applying the American Post-Keynesian economist Hyman Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) to the financial crisis of 2007–08. Arguing that most theories of financial crisis, including Minsky’s own, only describe events, but do not actually explain them, the book surveys theories of financial crisis that have been developed to describe instability in the post-WW2 US financial system and analyses them in their historical context. The book argues that explanation of the financial crisis of 2007–08 should involve interpretation of the concept of 'risk', which guides the construction and pricing of contemporary financial products such as derivatives and asset backed securities, as a form of 'liquidity', the concept that Minsky sought to explain the financial crises of the 1970s and 1980s with. The book highlights the continuing relevance of Minsky’s theory of liquidity crisis as "immanent", in a historical sense, to the products and trading practices of modern finance, because these products were developed to obviate the crisis dynamics that Minsky described. Minsky's FIH can therefore inform historical understanding of the crisis of 2007–08 but is not directly explanatory itself. The book explores explanation of the financial crisis of 2007–08 interpreting 'liquidity', in practical historical terms, as involving a process of development out of prior crisis dynamics. Seeking to contribute to debates over the causes of the financial crisis of 2007–08 by blending a discussion of historicizing philosophy, economic theory and contemporary financial banking and trading practices this work will be of great interest to scholars of international political economy, heterodox economics and critical theory.
... 2007); Riccardo Rebonato, Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, ...
Author: Ivan Ascher
Publisher: Princeton University Press
As financial markets expand and continue to refashion the world in their own image, the wealth of capitalist societies no longer presents itself as it did to Karl Marx in the nineteenth century, as a “monstrous collection of commodities.” Instead, it appears as an equally monstrous collection of financial securities, and the critique of political economy must proceed accordingly. But what would it mean to write Capital in the twenty-first century? Are we really to believe that risk, rather than labor, is now regarded as the true fount of economic value? Likewise, can it truly be the case that the credit relation — at least in the global North — has replaced the wage relation as the key site of exploitation and political struggle? And finally, if precarity is indeed the name of today’s proletarian condition, what possible future does it actually portend, what analysis does it require? Through a series of creative substitutions, Ascher’s Portfolio Society extends Marx’s critical project in bold and unexpected ways. In this work, Ascher demystifies crucial dimensions of contemporary finance and considers the predicaments of societies whose own future is now shaped by volatile financial markets. In the end, we may find that much has changed and much has not; relations of domination still endure, and mystifications do abound; but the devil is in the details, and that is where Ascher would have us dwell. At once a critique of modern finance and of the societies under its spell, Portfolio Society succeeds in revealing the potential limits of Capital, while reveling still in its limitless potential.
Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Schaeffer, Bernie. 2011.
Author: H. Kent Baker
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
All investments carry with them some degree of risk. In the financial world, individuals, professional money managers, financial institutions and many others encounter and must deal with risk. The main purpose of 'Investment Risk Management' is to provide an overview of developments in risk management and a synthesis of research involving the latest developments in the field.
When he finally opened the door to Carl's Jr., he had a fleeting feeling that he was about to consult with a fortune teller who would appear in the form of ...
Author: Donald Moses
The story combines legal-fiction with historical events, and provides a thrilling and true insight to law and lawyers. The book is the first in a planned series about Dan Masters, a personal injury trial attorney. It challenges stereotypes of how lawyers behave. Readers are introduced to characters burdened by a reason to file a suit, and challenged by foes dedicated to thwart them. Thrilling techniques played out by Masters in his never ending quest for justice produce a series of exhilarating outcomes. Although it is set in the year 1984, the story is timeless.--From author's website.
In 1679, a list of over 400 “fortunetellers” was produced, all women operating ... rich or poor, saw witchcraft and poisoning as an answer to their plight.
Author: Lisa Hilton
Publisher: Hachette UK
As lovely and charming as she was shrewd and calculating, Athenais de Montespan became the most powerful noblewoman of her day by brilliantly manipulating her forbidden role as mistress of King Louis XIV. With a lively narrative style that reads like fiction, Hilton reveals the woman behind the most dazzling days of the Sun King's reign. photos.
... number in which loneliness and hardship will occur, but these experiences bring enlightenment and an ability to sympathize with the plight of others.
Author: Sasha Fenton
Publisher: Hampton Roads Publishing
For those who have wanted to try their hand at fortunetelling, this comprehensive sampler of divination strategies offers a thorough introduction to a wide range of options. From more elaborate systems such as numerology, palmistry, and the I Ching to simpler dice and tea reading, you'll come to understand the history and usage of these ancient arts. Learn to read futures in a crystal ball, tarot cards, runes, or your own visage. Predict ups and downs in love, career, relationships, and finances. Find meaning in dreams, the structure of a flower, and even the placement of moles on a person's body. Expert insights, sample readings, and instructive illustrations provide practical guidance for the budding fortune-teller. This book is fun to use for yourself or with a gathering of friends. Techniques include: crystal ball reading, numerology, rune reading, using a pendulum, palmistry, tea leaf reading, and using the I Ching. Are you destined for good luck, money, and a great career? Will you find love or travel to distant lands? The answers can be found in these 20 easy-to-use predictive techniques.
These kids saw their true plight and wanted out: out of bed, out of theward, out of being totally helpless. They weresmarter thanwe who just shut upand took ...
Author: Brenda Serotte
Publisher: U of Nebraska Press
This is the memoir of a Sephardic Jewish girl living among Ashkenazi neighbors in the Bronx. She comes down with polio just before her eighth birthday. She begins a fight against immobility set within a cultural realm where Catholic and Jew and Turkish Moslem once met. Where a beautiful aunt could be abducted into a Turkish harem and another aunt could still keep the 400-year-old iron key to the family house in the Cordoba of the Spanish Inquisition.
Her plight and the people's outrage over her exile caught Rome's eye. The Ptolemy who had ruled before Cleopatra's father officially bequeathed Egypt to ...
Author: Gwendolyn Womack
NOW A USA TODAY AND LOS ANGELES TIMES BESTSELLER From the award-winning author of The Memory Painter comes a sweeping and suspenseful tale of romance, fate, and fortune. Semele Cavnow appraises antiquities for an exclusive Manhattan auction house, deciphering ancient texts—and when she discovers a manuscript written in the time of Cleopatra, she knows it will be the find of her career. Its author tells the story of a priceless tarot deck, now lost to history, but as Semele delves further, she realizes the manuscript is more than it seems. Both a memoir and a prophecy, it appears to be the work of a powerful seer, describing devastating wars and natural disasters in detail thousands of years before they occurred. The more she reads, the more the manuscript begins to affect Semele’s life. But what happened to the tarot deck? As the mystery of her connection to its story deepens, Semele can’t shake the feeling that she’s being followed. Only one person can help her make sense of it all: her client, Theo Bossard. Yet Theo is arrogant and elusive, concealing secrets of his own, and there’s more to Semele’s desire to speak with him than she would like to admit. Can Semele even trust him? The auction date is swiftly approaching, and someone wants to interfere—someone who knows the cards exist, and that the Bossard manuscript is tied to her. Semele realizes it’s up to her to stop them: the manuscript holds the key to a two-thousand-year-old secret, a secret someone will do anything to possess.
Ever since Fang Zhangzhou had returned and witnessed the plight of the green lotus, he was already filled with rage, but there was nowhere for him to vent ...
Author: Qianlong Wuyong
The fortune-teller went down the hill. All sorts of beautiful ladies came forward together to change their fate, borrowing heaven-defying luck to come rolling over. Beautiful women, please wait a moment, I see that you don't look too good, there's a big barrier of evil, I'll help you find a bone to help you, there's definitely a way to save you.
... Tony over the entire course of his life, I was first able to truly appreciate the breadth of his plight as he suffered through this peculiar conference.
Author: Ph. D Amada
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
A soft-spoken student who was once a violent hit man, an elderly man tormented by memories of wartime imprisonment, a fortune-teller who finds his therapist inscrutable, a woman who can’t get satisfaction from her mother or her therapist . . . These are just a few of the intriguing patients treated by Gerald Amada during nearly forty years of practice as a psychotherapist. From the ridiculous to the tragic, the tales of Amada’s treatment of unusual patients are fascinating, disturbing, and utterly engrossing. Amada not only lets us peek into his office but also leads us into the hearts and minds of his patients and himself.